๐Ÿ”ฌ Deep Dive: The Harvest Protocol (Exit Strategy)

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Now that we understand the physics of Gamma, we apply a disciplined behavior to exploit it. Our edge is not in catching “the big move”; it is in protecting our 80% win rate.

1. The 10% “Wake Up” Call

Our backtesting proves that a disciplined 10% exit yields an 80% win rate. When your P/L hits +10%, you transition from a passive holder to an active manager. You must choose: Bank it now or let it run.

The “Run or Bank” Checklist

FactorBank at 10% (The Default)Let it Run (Target 20-25%)
SPX PositionPrice is near or on a $30\Delta$ strike.Price is centered in the “Valley.”
Gamma StatusWe are < 4 days to front-month expiry.5+ days to front-month expiry.
Net DeltaNet Delta is > 15 or < -15.Net Delta is near Zero (Neutral).

2. Managing “The Runner”

If you choose to let the trade run past 10%, you are now playing for a 25% ceiling.

  • The Trailing Stop: You must move your mental stop to +5%. Never let an 80% win probability turn into a 25% hard-stop loss.
  • The Ceiling: We never “hope” past 25%. If the trade hits 25%, we exit immediately. The Gamma risk beyond 25% profit makes the trade a mathematical “coin flip.”

3. The 48-Hour “Kill Switch”

Because of the “Physics” explained in Section 3, we have a mandatory time-based exit.

  • The Rule: We exit the trade 48 hours (2 days) before the front-month (15-day) options expire, regardless of profit.
  • The Logic: A 5% profit on Wednesday is superior to a 25% “Gap-and-Trap” loss on Friday morning. We do not hold into the “Mega Gamma” zone.

๐Ÿšฉ Summary: The Disciplined Collector

  • Physics: Gamma makes the end of the trade dangerous.
  • Discipline: 10% is the goal; 25% is the ceiling.
  • Timing: 48 hours is the absolute limit.
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