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Now that we understand the physics of Gamma, we apply a disciplined behavior to exploit it. Our edge is not in catching “the big move”; it is in protecting our 80% win rate.
1. The 10% “Wake Up” Call
Our backtesting proves that a disciplined 10% exit yields an 80% win rate. When your P/L hits +10%, you transition from a passive holder to an active manager. You must choose: Bank it now or let it run.
The “Run or Bank” Checklist
| Factor | Bank at 10% (The Default) | Let it Run (Target 20-25%) |
| SPX Position | Price is near or on a $30\Delta$ strike. | Price is centered in the “Valley.” |
| Gamma Status | We are < 4 days to front-month expiry. | 5+ days to front-month expiry. |
| Net Delta | Net Delta is > 15 or < -15. | Net Delta is near Zero (Neutral). |
2. Managing “The Runner”
If you choose to let the trade run past 10%, you are now playing for a 25% ceiling.
- The Trailing Stop: You must move your mental stop to +5%. Never let an 80% win probability turn into a 25% hard-stop loss.
- The Ceiling: We never “hope” past 25%. If the trade hits 25%, we exit immediately. The Gamma risk beyond 25% profit makes the trade a mathematical “coin flip.”
3. The 48-Hour “Kill Switch”
Because of the “Physics” explained in Section 3, we have a mandatory time-based exit.
- The Rule: We exit the trade 48 hours (2 days) before the front-month (15-day) options expire, regardless of profit.
- The Logic: A 5% profit on Wednesday is superior to a 25% “Gap-and-Trap” loss on Friday morning. We do not hold into the “Mega Gamma” zone.
๐ฉ Summary: The Disciplined Collector
- Physics: Gamma makes the end of the trade dangerous.
- Discipline: 10% is the goal; 25% is the ceiling.
- Timing: 48 hours is the absolute limit.
